Epistemic status: I don’t think anything I’m saying in this post is completely new (eg see https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ap4KfkHyxjYPDiqh2/pascal-s-muggle-infinitesimal-priors-and-strong-evidence and https://www.gwern.net/mugging) apart from maybe the meta-probability framing, but it’s an exercise in