Expectation-Maximization is a classic ML algorithm that is used to build a model of some process that involves hidden variables that aren’t observed in the data. Specifically, once we have
Category: Math
Pascal’s Mugging: Reasoning when you have other things to do
Epistemic status: I don’t think anything I’m saying in this post is completely new (eg see https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ap4KfkHyxjYPDiqh2/pascal-s-muggle-infinitesimal-priors-and-strong-evidence and https://www.gwern.net/mugging) apart from maybe the meta-probability framing, but it’s an exercise in