Math – julianrdcosta

Epistemic status: I don’t think anything I’m saying in this post is completely new (eg see https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ap4KfkHyxjYPDiqh2/pascal-s-muggle-infinitesimal-priors-and-strong-evidence and https://www.gwern.net/mugging) apart from maybe the meta-probability framing, but it’s an exercise inContinue readingPascal’s Mugging: Reasoning when you have other things to do

MathMay 16, 2018

Summer Project 2018 : Intro

A lot of people have been asking me what I’m going to be doing this summer, and I have been very vague, for the excellent reason that until today, IContinue readingSummer Project 2018 : Intro

MathMarch 30, 2016

Poisoned Cookies

Here’s an interesting puzzle which was part of the application for SPARC 2016. (Applications are now closed) Suppose you have 240 cookie jars, one of which has been poisoned, soContinue readingPoisoned Cookies